TY - JOUR
T1 - The effect of weighting hydrological projections based on the robustness of hydrological models under a changing climate
AU - Pastén-Zapata, Ernesto
AU - Pimentel, Rafael
AU - Royer-Gaspard, Paul
AU - Sonnenborg, Torben O.
AU - Aparicio-Ibañez, Javier
AU - Lemoine, Anthony
AU - Pérez-Palazón, María José
AU - Schneider, Raphael
AU - Photiadou, Christiana
AU - Thirel, Guillaume
AU - Refsgaard, Jens Christian
N1 - Funding Information:
This work was funded by the project AQUACLEW, which is part of ERA4CS, an ERA-NET initiated by JPI Climate, and funded by FORMAS (SE), DLR (DE), BMWFW (AT), IFD (DK), MINECO (ES), ANR (FR) with co-funding by the European Commission [Grant 690462]. R. Pimentel acknowledges fundings by the modality 5.2 of the Programa Propio-2018 of the University of Cordoba and the Juan de la Cierva Incorporación Programme of the Spanish Ministry of Science and Innovation (IJC2018–038093-I). J. Aparicio acknowledges fundings by the Programme Ayudas para contratos predoctorales para la formación de doctores of the Spanish Ministry of Science and Innovation (PRE2019–090493). R. Pimentel and J. Aparicio are members of DAUCO, Unit of Excellence ref. CEX2019–000968-M, with financial support from the Spanish Ministry of Science and Innovation, the Spanish State Research Agency, through the Severo Ochoa and María de Maeztu Program for Centers and Units of Excellence in R&D.
Publisher Copyright:
© 2022
PY - 2022/6
Y1 - 2022/6
N2 - Study region: This study is developed in three catchments located in Denmark, France and Spain, covering different climate and physical conditions in Europe.Study focus: The simulation skill of hydrological models under contrasting climate conditions is evaluated using a Differential Split Sample Test (DSST). In each catchment, three different hydrological models are given a weight based on their simulation skill according to their robustness considering the DSST results for traditional and purpose-specific metrics. Four weighting approaches are used, each including a different set of evaluation metrics. The weights are applied to obtain reliable future projections of annual mean river discharge and purpose-specific metrics. New hydrological insights: Projections are found to be sensitive to model weightings in cases where the models show significantly different skills in the DSST. However, when the skills of the models are similar, there is no significant change when applying different weighting schemes. Nevertheless, the methodology proposed here increases the reliability of the purpose-for-fit hydrological projections in a climate change context.
AB - Study region: This study is developed in three catchments located in Denmark, France and Spain, covering different climate and physical conditions in Europe.Study focus: The simulation skill of hydrological models under contrasting climate conditions is evaluated using a Differential Split Sample Test (DSST). In each catchment, three different hydrological models are given a weight based on their simulation skill according to their robustness considering the DSST results for traditional and purpose-specific metrics. Four weighting approaches are used, each including a different set of evaluation metrics. The weights are applied to obtain reliable future projections of annual mean river discharge and purpose-specific metrics. New hydrological insights: Projections are found to be sensitive to model weightings in cases where the models show significantly different skills in the DSST. However, when the skills of the models are similar, there is no significant change when applying different weighting schemes. Nevertheless, the methodology proposed here increases the reliability of the purpose-for-fit hydrological projections in a climate change context.
KW - Climate change impacts
KW - Differential split sampling test, Bayesian model averaging
KW - Model weighting
KW - Uncertainty
KW - DK-model
UR - http://www.scopus.com/inward/record.url?scp=85131056512&partnerID=8YFLogxK
U2 - 10.1016/j.ejrh.2022.101113
DO - 10.1016/j.ejrh.2022.101113
M3 - Article
AN - SCOPUS:85131056512
SN - 2214-5818
VL - 41
JO - Journal of Hydrology: Regional Studies
JF - Journal of Hydrology: Regional Studies
M1 - 101113
ER -
