Test of Bayesian belief network and stakeholder involvement

Hans Jørgen Henriksen (Editor), Per Rasmussen, Gyrite Brandt, Dorthe von Bülow, Lisbeth Flindt Jørgensen, Per Nyegaard

Research output: Book/ReportReport (publicly available)


The applicability of graphical models (Bayesian belief networks – BBNs) in water resource management regarding preventive groundwater protection was investigated in a case study for Havelse wellfield catchment in North Zealand (Figure 1.1). Geological Survey of Denmark and Greenland (GEUS) was the project leader and Copenhagen Energy (CE) the decision-maker and end-user in relation to the BBN case study.

CE is the largest water supply company in Denmark. It supplies roughly one million inhabitants in the greater Copenhagen area with drinking water each day. CE operates Havelse wellfield together with 55 other large wellfields located in northern and eastern Zealand (the island on which Copenhagen is located).

Three different types of actions have been analysed as means of protecting water
resources: 1) voluntary farming contracts, 2) afforestation and 3) establishment of wetlands. For each problem a BBN have been constructed and evaluated with full stakeholder involvement of both a group of professional stakeholders and a citizens’ group.

The possibilities and problems connected with voluntary five-ten-year farmer contracts prescribing no pesticide application in return for compensational payment was especially analysed. It was not a question of actually implementing such zones that was in focus in the study, only analysing what would be required in compensational payment if such zones
were to be implemented at a magnitude and on a scale that allowed them to function as efficient groundwater protection. Furthermore, the aim was to clarify the impact implementation of such protection zones could have on land use, farm economics, groundwater quality, biodiversity and aquatic environment.
Original languageEnglish
PublisherDanmarks og Grønlands Geologiske Undersøgelse & Københavns Energi
Number of pages177
ISBN (Print)87-7871-139-8
Publication statusPublished - Jul 2004

Programme Area

  • Programme Area 2: Water Resources


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