Precession modulates the poleward expansion of atmospheric circulation to the Arctic Ocean

Yi Zhong; Zhengyao Lu; Stefanie Kaboth-Bahr; Jimin Yu; Keiji Horikawa; Mark J. Dekkers; Juan C. Larrasoaña; Peter D. Clift; Michael E. Weber; Flor Vermassen; Sev Kender; Chijun Sun; Hu Yang; Xianfeng Wang; Camilla S. Andresen; Yanguang Liu; Haiwei Zhang; Zhengyang Dai; Lu Niu; Jingyu Zhang; Xuguang Feng; Debo Zhao; Wenyue Xia; Sheng Yang; Qingsong Liu

doi:10.1038/s41467-025-56542-1

Precession modulates the poleward expansion of atmospheric circulation to the Arctic Ocean

Yi Zhong, Zhengyao Lu, Stefanie Kaboth-Bahr, Jimin Yu, Keiji Horikawa, Mark J. Dekkers, Juan C. Larrasoaña, Peter D. Clift, Michael E. Weber, Flor Vermassen, Sev Kender, Chijun Sun, Hu Yang, Xianfeng Wang, Camilla S. Andresen, Yanguang Liu, Haiwei Zhang, Zhengyang Dai, Lu Niu, Jingyu ZhangXuguang Feng, Debo Zhao, Wenyue Xia, Sheng Yang, Qingsong Liu

Department of Glaciology and Climate

Research output: Contribution to journal › Article › Research › peer-review

Abstract

Under sustained global warming, Arctic climate is projected to become more responsive to changes in North Pacific meridional heat transport as a result of teleconnections between low and high latitudes, but the underlying mechanisms remain poorly understood. Here, we reconstruct subarctic humidity changes over the past 400 kyr to investigate the role of low-to-high latitude interactions in regulating Arctic hydroclimate. Our reconstruction is based on precipitation-driven sediment input variations in the Subarctic North Pacific (SANP), which reveal a strong precessional cycle in subarctic humidity under the relatively low eccentricity variations that dominated the past four glacial-interglacial cycles. Combined with climate model simulations, we highlight that precession drives meridional shifts in the northern rim of the North Pacific Subtropical Gyre (NPSG) and modulates the efficiency of heat and water vapor transfer to the SANP and Arctic regions. Our findings suggest that projections of a northward shift of the NPSG in response to future global warming will lead to wetter conditions in the Arctic Ocean and enhanced sea-ice loss.

Original language	English
Article number	1143
Number of pages	10
Journal	Nature Communications
Volume	16
DOIs	https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-025-56542-1
Publication status	Published - 29 Jan 2025

Programme Area

Programme Area 5: Nature and Climate

UN SDGs

This output contributes to the following UN Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs)

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Zhong, Y., Lu, Z., Kaboth-Bahr, S., Yu, J., Horikawa, K., Dekkers, M. J., Larrasoaña, J. C., Clift, P. D., Weber, M. E., Vermassen, F., Kender, S., Sun, C., Yang, H., Wang, X., Andresen, C. S., Liu, Y., Zhang, H., Dai, Z., Niu, L., ... Liu, Q. (2025). Precession modulates the poleward expansion of atmospheric circulation to the Arctic Ocean. Nature Communications, 16, Article 1143. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-025-56542-1

@article{c14dc3dfa75d4909a2cec0bf09c73ace,

title = "Precession modulates the poleward expansion of atmospheric circulation to the Arctic Ocean",

abstract = "Under sustained global warming, Arctic climate is projected to become more responsive to changes in North Pacific meridional heat transport as a result of teleconnections between low and high latitudes, but the underlying mechanisms remain poorly understood. Here, we reconstruct subarctic humidity changes over the past 400 kyr to investigate the role of low-to-high latitude interactions in regulating Arctic hydroclimate. Our reconstruction is based on precipitation-driven sediment input variations in the Subarctic North Pacific (SANP), which reveal a strong precessional cycle in subarctic humidity under the relatively low eccentricity variations that dominated the past four glacial-interglacial cycles. Combined with climate model simulations, we highlight that precession drives meridional shifts in the northern rim of the North Pacific Subtropical Gyre (NPSG) and modulates the efficiency of heat and water vapor transfer to the SANP and Arctic regions. Our findings suggest that projections of a northward shift of the NPSG in response to future global warming will lead to wetter conditions in the Arctic Ocean and enhanced sea-ice loss.",

author = "Yi Zhong and Zhengyao Lu and Stefanie Kaboth-Bahr and Jimin Yu and Keiji Horikawa and Dekkers, {Mark J.} and Larrasoa{\~n}a, {Juan C.} and Clift, {Peter D.} and Weber, {Michael E.} and Flor Vermassen and Sev Kender and Chijun Sun and Hu Yang and Xianfeng Wang and Andresen, {Camilla S.} and Yanguang Liu and Haiwei Zhang and Zhengyang Dai and Lu Niu and Jingyu Zhang and Xuguang Feng and Debo Zhao and Wenyue Xia and Sheng Yang and Qingsong Liu",

note = "Publisher Copyright: {\textcopyright} The Author(s) 2025.",

year = "2025",

month = jan,

day = "29",

doi = "10.1038/s41467-025-56542-1",

language = "English",

volume = "16",

journal = "Nature Communications",

issn = "2041-1723",

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}

Zhong, Y, Lu, Z, Kaboth-Bahr, S, Yu, J, Horikawa, K, Dekkers, MJ, Larrasoaña, JC, Clift, PD, Weber, ME, Vermassen, F, Kender, S, Sun, C, Yang, H, Wang, X, Andresen, CS, Liu, Y, Zhang, H, Dai, Z, Niu, L, Zhang, J, Feng, X, Zhao, D, Xia, W, Yang, S & Liu, Q 2025, 'Precession modulates the poleward expansion of atmospheric circulation to the Arctic Ocean', Nature Communications, vol. 16, 1143. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-025-56542-1

TY - JOUR

T1 - Precession modulates the poleward expansion of atmospheric circulation to the Arctic Ocean

AU - Zhong, Yi

AU - Lu, Zhengyao

AU - Kaboth-Bahr, Stefanie

AU - Yu, Jimin

AU - Horikawa, Keiji

AU - Dekkers, Mark J.

AU - Larrasoaña, Juan C.

AU - Clift, Peter D.

AU - Weber, Michael E.

AU - Vermassen, Flor

AU - Kender, Sev

AU - Sun, Chijun

AU - Yang, Hu

AU - Wang, Xianfeng

AU - Andresen, Camilla S.

AU - Liu, Yanguang

AU - Zhang, Haiwei

AU - Dai, Zhengyang

AU - Niu, Lu

AU - Zhang, Jingyu

AU - Feng, Xuguang

AU - Zhao, Debo

AU - Xia, Wenyue

AU - Yang, Sheng

AU - Liu, Qingsong

PY - 2025/1/29

Y1 - 2025/1/29

N2 - Under sustained global warming, Arctic climate is projected to become more responsive to changes in North Pacific meridional heat transport as a result of teleconnections between low and high latitudes, but the underlying mechanisms remain poorly understood. Here, we reconstruct subarctic humidity changes over the past 400 kyr to investigate the role of low-to-high latitude interactions in regulating Arctic hydroclimate. Our reconstruction is based on precipitation-driven sediment input variations in the Subarctic North Pacific (SANP), which reveal a strong precessional cycle in subarctic humidity under the relatively low eccentricity variations that dominated the past four glacial-interglacial cycles. Combined with climate model simulations, we highlight that precession drives meridional shifts in the northern rim of the North Pacific Subtropical Gyre (NPSG) and modulates the efficiency of heat and water vapor transfer to the SANP and Arctic regions. Our findings suggest that projections of a northward shift of the NPSG in response to future global warming will lead to wetter conditions in the Arctic Ocean and enhanced sea-ice loss.

AB - Under sustained global warming, Arctic climate is projected to become more responsive to changes in North Pacific meridional heat transport as a result of teleconnections between low and high latitudes, but the underlying mechanisms remain poorly understood. Here, we reconstruct subarctic humidity changes over the past 400 kyr to investigate the role of low-to-high latitude interactions in regulating Arctic hydroclimate. Our reconstruction is based on precipitation-driven sediment input variations in the Subarctic North Pacific (SANP), which reveal a strong precessional cycle in subarctic humidity under the relatively low eccentricity variations that dominated the past four glacial-interglacial cycles. Combined with climate model simulations, we highlight that precession drives meridional shifts in the northern rim of the North Pacific Subtropical Gyre (NPSG) and modulates the efficiency of heat and water vapor transfer to the SANP and Arctic regions. Our findings suggest that projections of a northward shift of the NPSG in response to future global warming will lead to wetter conditions in the Arctic Ocean and enhanced sea-ice loss.

UR - http://www.scopus.com/inward/record.url?scp=85217624033&partnerID=8YFLogxK

U2 - 10.1038/s41467-025-56542-1

DO - 10.1038/s41467-025-56542-1

M3 - Article

SN - 2041-1723

VL - 16

JO - Nature Communications

JF - Nature Communications

M1 - 1143

ER -

Precession modulates the poleward expansion of atmospheric circulation to the Arctic Ocean

Abstract

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UN SDGs

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