Nitrate leaching losses from two Baltic Sea catchments under scenarios of changes in land use, land management and climate

Jørgen E. Olesen, Christen D. Børgesen, Fatemeh Hashemi, Mohamed Jabloun, Dominika Bar-Michalczyk, Przemyslaw Wachniew, Anna J. Zurek, Alena Bartosova, Thomas Bosshard, Anne L. Hansen, Jens C. Refsgaard

Research output: Contribution to journalArticleResearchpeer-review

29 Citations (Scopus)

Abstract

Pollution with excess nutrients deteriorate the water quality of the Baltic Sea. The effect of combined land use and climate scenarios on nitrate leaching and nitrogen (N) loads to surface waters from two Baltic Sea catchments (Norsminde in Denmark and Kocinka in Poland) was explored using different models; the NLES and Daisy models for nitrate leaching, and MIKE SHE or MODFLOW/MT3DMS for N transport. Three Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSP1, SSP2 and SSP5) defined change in land use and agricultural activities. The climate change scenarios covered 2041–2060 compared with 1991–2010 under RCP8.5, applying four different climate models. Increases in predicted N-load from climate change vary from 20 to 60% depending on climate model. SSPs moderate these N-load changes with small changes for SSP1 to large increases for SSP5, with greater increases for Norsminde than Kocinka due to land use differences. This stresses needs for new measures and governing schemes to meet sustainability targets.

Original languageEnglish
Pages (from-to)1252-1263
Number of pages12
JournalAmbio
Volume48
Issue number11
DOIs
Publication statusPublished - 1 Nov 2019

Keywords

  • Climate change
  • Diffuse water pollution
  • Land management
  • Land use
  • Nitate leaching
  • Nitrogen load

Programme Area

  • Programme Area 2: Water Resources

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