Model peer reviews and modeller-manager dialogues as an avenue to improved model credibility

Research output: Chapter in Book/Report/Conference proceedingConference article in proceedingspeer-review

2 Citations (Scopus)

Abstract

Rigorous validation tests against independent data and uncertainty assessment are of principal importance in modelling, but these tests mainly increase the reliability of the model, not necessarily the credibility perceived by water managers and stakeholders. Credibility, as opposed to reliability, is much more connected to, and a result of, the manager-modeller dialogue with its speech and interaction process face-toface at model review sessions with peer reviews. However, the manager-modeller dialogue is also influenced by how water managers and different stakeholders cohere or differ in their framing of the environmental dispute which the modelling project is part of. Thus multiple frames can here influence how credibility and uncertainty issues are perceived by the water managers and stakeholders. We suggest that simply focusing on eliminating uncertainty and testing reliability is not enough. Instead, we recommend a broader focus in the modelling process in order to explicitly take notion of and evaluate the perceived credibility. The modellermanager dialogues must care more about how issues of incomplete knowledge, unpredictability, and multiple knowledge frames are explored and perceived by stakeholders. Experiences from Denmark with reference to the national water resource model (DK-model) and regional model projects are presented and discussed, including tools for facilitating dialogue drawing on social-science and natural-science toolboxes.

Original languageEnglish
Title of host publicationCalibration and Reliability in Groundwater Modelling: Credibility of Modelling
Subtitle of host publicationProceedings of ModelCARE 2007 Conference, held in Denmark, September 2007
EditorsJ.C. Refsgaard, K. Kovar, E. Haarder, E. Nygaard
PublisherInternational Association of Hydrological Sciences
Pages101-107
Number of pages7
ISBN (Print)978-1901502497
Publication statusPublished - 2008
EventModelCARE 2007 - Copenhagen
Duration: 9 Sept 200713 Sept 2017

Publication series

SeriesIAHS Publication
Volume320
ISSN0144-7815

Conference

ConferenceModelCARE 2007
CityCopenhagen
Period9/09/0713/09/17

Keywords

  • Credibility
  • Dialogue
  • Model peer review
  • Reliability
  • Uncertainty
  • Validation

Programme Area

  • Programme Area 2: Water Resources

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