Mapping the cobalt and lithium supply chains for e-mobility transition: Significance of overseas investments and vertical integration in evaluating mineral supply risks

The potential shortages of critical materials such as cobalt and lithium induced by the global e-mobility transition have recently raised enormous concerns. Here, we map the global cobalt and lithium material flows and discuss their supply risks at both country and company levels. We demonstrate highly concentrated supply chains for cobalt and lithium, especially in the production (69 % of cobalt in DRC and 80 % of lithium in Australia and Chile), refining (over half in China), and for cathode materials and cell production (by Eastern Asian countries). The top 10 companies control around 80 % of global mining and refining production. Overseas investments, particularly by multinational companies, may potentially decrease supply chain concentration. Many upstream companies engage in vertical integration to enhance business value, whereas downstream companies invest in mining or refining operations for a reliable supply. Achieving supply chain security for cobalt and lithium requires transparent international trading systems, responsible sourcing practices, and enhanced recycling.