Greenland ice sheet mass balance from 1840 through next week

Kenneth D. Mankoff, Xavier Fettweis, Peter L. Langen, Martin Stendel, Kristian K. Kjeldsen, Nanna B. Karlsson, Brice Noël, Michiel R. van den Broeke, Anne Solgaard, William Colgan, Jason E. Box, Sebastian B. Simonsen, Michalea D. King, Andreas P. Ahlstrøm, Signe Bech Andersen, Robert S. Fausto

Research output: Contribution to journalArticleResearchpeer-review

29 Citations (Scopus)


The mass of the Greenland ice sheet is declining as mass gain from snow accumulation is exceeded by mass loss from surface meltwater runoff, marine-terminating glacier calving and submarine melting, and basal melting. Here we use the input-output (IO) method to estimate mass change from 1840 through next week. Surface mass balance (SMB) gains and losses come from a semi-empirical SMB model from 1840 through 1985 and three regional climate models (RCMs; HIRHAM/HARMONIE, Modèle Atmosphérique Régional-MAR, and RACMO-Regional Atmospheric Climate MOdel) from 1986 through next week. Additional non-SMB losses come from a marine-terminating glacier ice discharge product and a basal mass balance model. From these products we provide an annual estimate of Greenland ice sheet mass balance from 1840 through 1985 and a daily estimate at sector and region scale from 1986 through next week. This product updates daily and is the first IO product to include the basal mass balance which is a source of an additional ∼Gtyr-1 of mass loss. Our results demonstrate an accelerating ice-sheet-scale mass loss and general agreement (coefficient of determination, r2, ranges from 0.62 to 0.94) among six other products, including gravitational, volume, and other IO mass balance estimates. Results from this study are available at 10.22008/FK2/OHI23Z .

Original languageEnglish
Pages (from-to)5001-5025
Number of pages25
JournalEarth System Science Data
Issue number10
Publication statusPublished - 29 Oct 2021


  • Ice and climate
  • Ice discharge
  • mass balance
  • Greenland

Programme Area

  • Programme Area 5: Nature and Climate


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