Combined oceanic and atmospheric influences on net accumulation on Devon ice cap, Nunavut, Canada

An annual net accumulation history of the high-elevation region of Devon Ice Cap, Nunavut, Canada, was reconstructed for the period 1963-2003 using five shallow firn cores. Annual net accumulation decreased significantly after 1989. To explain variability in the reconstructed annual net accumulation record, monthly and seasonal moisture-source probabilities were calculated for gridcells throughout the Arctic during 1979-2003. Seasonally, moisture-source probabilities reach a maximum in northern Baffin Bay in late summer/early fall and approach zero throughout the Arctic in winter. Late-summer/early-fall moisture-source probabilities were significantly higher around the North Open Water (NOW) Polynya during the 4 year period of highest annual net accumulation during the 1979-2003 period (1984-87), than during the 4 year period with the lowest annual net accumulation (1994-97). This is due to both a significant decrease in the sea-ice fraction and a significant increase in low-elevation atmospheric transport over the NOW area during the high net accumulation period. Anomalously low net accumulation and anomalously high firnification rates during the 1989-2003 period suggest that a change in ice dynamics, rather than a change in surface mass balance, may explain recent ice-cap thickening observed by laser altimetry.