TY - JOUR
T1 - Are European Blue Economy ambitions in conflict with European environmental visions?
AU - Andersen, Jesper H.
AU - Al-Hamdani, Zyad
AU - Carstensen, Jacob
AU - Edelvang, Karen
AU - Egekvist, Josefine
AU - Kaae, Berit C.
AU - Hammer, Kathrine J.
AU - Therese Harvey, Eva
AU - Leth, Jørgen O.
AU - McClintock, Will
AU - Murray, Ciarán
AU - Olafsson, Anton S.
AU - Olsen, Jeppe
AU - Sveegaard, Signe
AU - Tougaard, Jakob
N1 - Publisher Copyright:
© 2023, The Author(s).
PY - 2023/12
Y1 - 2023/12
N2 - We report the outcomes of a comprehensive study of the potential consequences of the implementation of the EU Maritime Spatial Planning Directive (MSPD) in Danish waters. The analyses are anchored in a framework developed in support of data-driven Ecosystem-Based Maritime Spatial Planning. The data for the models include not only human stressors but also information on the distribution of ecosystem components ranging from planktonic communities over benthic communities to fish, seabirds and marine mammals. We have established a baseline, based on state-of-the-art data sets, with respect to combined effects upon ecosystem components. Future scenarios for the developments in human stressors were estimated for 2030 and 2050 based on information on existing policies, strategies and plans and were compared to the baseline. In addition, we developed a scenario for implementation of the Marine Strategy Framework Directive (MSFD), i.e. working towards meeting the objectives of Good Environmental Status. Our results indicate that (1) combined human stressors will possibly increase in 2030 and 2050 compared to the baseline, (2) increased combined human stressors are likely to lead to a worsening of the environmental and ecological status sensu the Marine Strategy Framework Directive and the Water Framework Directive (WFD), and (3) the MSPD implementation process appears to conflict with the MSFD and WFD objectives. Accordingly, we are sceptical of claims of an untapped potential for Blue Growth in Danish marine waters.
AB - We report the outcomes of a comprehensive study of the potential consequences of the implementation of the EU Maritime Spatial Planning Directive (MSPD) in Danish waters. The analyses are anchored in a framework developed in support of data-driven Ecosystem-Based Maritime Spatial Planning. The data for the models include not only human stressors but also information on the distribution of ecosystem components ranging from planktonic communities over benthic communities to fish, seabirds and marine mammals. We have established a baseline, based on state-of-the-art data sets, with respect to combined effects upon ecosystem components. Future scenarios for the developments in human stressors were estimated for 2030 and 2050 based on information on existing policies, strategies and plans and were compared to the baseline. In addition, we developed a scenario for implementation of the Marine Strategy Framework Directive (MSFD), i.e. working towards meeting the objectives of Good Environmental Status. Our results indicate that (1) combined human stressors will possibly increase in 2030 and 2050 compared to the baseline, (2) increased combined human stressors are likely to lead to a worsening of the environmental and ecological status sensu the Marine Strategy Framework Directive and the Water Framework Directive (WFD), and (3) the MSPD implementation process appears to conflict with the MSFD and WFD objectives. Accordingly, we are sceptical of claims of an untapped potential for Blue Growth in Danish marine waters.
KW - Cumulative pressures
KW - Ecosystem-based management
KW - Good Environmental Status
KW - Marine Strategy Framework Directive
KW - Maritime Spatial Planning
KW - Maritime Spatial Planning Directive
UR - http://www.scopus.com/inward/record.url?scp=85168885932&partnerID=8YFLogxK
U2 - 10.1007/s13280-023-01896-3
DO - 10.1007/s13280-023-01896-3
M3 - Article
C2 - 37639203
AN - SCOPUS:85168885932
SN - 0044-7447
VL - 52
SP - 1981
EP - 1991
JO - Ambio
JF - Ambio
IS - 12
ER -