@article{6dc9cbf460714c058da30346048fafbc,
title = "The urgency of Arctic change",
abstract = "This article provides a synthesis of the latest observational trends and projections for the future of the Arctic. First, the Arctic is already changing rapidly as a result of climate change. Contemporary warm Arctic temperatures and large sea ice deficits (75% volume loss) demonstrate climate states outside of previous experience. Modeled changes of the Arctic cryosphere demonstrate that even limiting global temperature increases to near 2 °C will leave the Arctic a much different environment by mid-century with less snow and sea ice, melted permafrost, altered ecosystems, and a projected annual mean Arctic temperature increase of +4 °C. Second, even under ambitious emission reduction scenarios, high-latitude land ice melt, including Greenland, are foreseen to continue due to internal lags, leading to accelerating global sea level rise throughout the century. Third, future Arctic changes may in turn impact lower latitudes through tundra greenhouse gas release and shifts in ocean and atmospheric circulation. Arctic-specific radiative and heat storage feedbacks may become an obstacle to achieving a stabilized global climate. In light of these trends, the precautionary principle calls for early adaptation and mitigation actions.",
keywords = "2 °C limit, Arctic, Climate projections, Cryosphere, Global change, Sea ice",
author = "James Overland and Edward Dunlea and Box, {Jason E.} and Robert Corell and Martin Forsius and Vladimir Kattsov and Olsen, {Morten Skovgard} and Janet Pawlak and Lars-Otto Reiersen and Muyin Wang",
note = "Funding Information: This work was facilitated by the Arctic Monitoring and Assessment Programme (AMAP) with support from the Nordic Council of Ministers. VK was supported by a contract with the Ministry of Education and Science of the Russian Federation (no. 14.W.03.31.0006 ), MF by the Academy of Finland through Grant 304467 , and JO and MW by the Arctic Research Project of the NOAA Climate Program Office . We acknowledge the World Climate Research Programme's Working Group on Coupled Modelling, which is responsible for CMIP, and we thank the climate modelling groups for producing and making available their model output. For CMIP the U.S. Department of Energy's Program for Climate Model Diagnosis and Intercomparison provides coordinating support and led development of software infrastructure in partnership with the Global Organization for Earth System Science Portals. This publication is partially funded by the Joint Institute for the Study of the Atmosphere and Ocean (JISAO) under NOAA Cooperative Agreement NA15OAR4320063 , Contribution No 2018-0139 . This is PMEL contribution 4676 . Funding Information: This work was facilitated by the Arctic Monitoring and Assessment Programme (AMAP) with support from the Nordic Council of Ministers. VK was supported by a contract with the Ministry of Education and Science of the Russian Federation (no. 14.W.03.31.0006), MF by the Academy of Finland through Grant 304467, and JO and MW by the Arctic Research Project of the NOAA Climate Program Office. We acknowledge the World Climate Research Programme's Working Group on Coupled Modelling, which is responsible for CMIP, and we thank the climate modelling groups for producing and making available their model output. For CMIP the U.S. Department of Energy's Program for Climate Model Diagnosis and Intercomparison provides coordinating support and led development of software infrastructure in partnership with the Global Organization for Earth System Science Portals. This publication is partially funded by the Joint Institute for the Study of the Atmosphere and Ocean (JISAO) under NOAA Cooperative Agreement NA15OAR4320063, Contribution No 2018-0139. This is PMEL contribution 4676. Publisher Copyright: {\textcopyright} 2018 The Authors",
year = "2019",
month = sep,
doi = "10.1016/j.polar.2018.11.008",
language = "English",
volume = "21",
pages = "6--13",
journal = "Polar Science",
issn = "1873-9652",
publisher = "Elsevier",
}