TY - JOUR
T1 - Spatiotemporal evaluation of future groundwater recharge in arid and semi-arid regions under climate change scenarios
AU - Andaryani, Soghra
AU - Nourani, Vahid
AU - Pradhan, Biswajeet
AU - Jalali Ansarudi, Tahereh
AU - Ershadfath, Farnaz
AU - Torabi Haghighi, Ali
N1 - Publisher Copyright:
© 2022 IAHS.
PY - 2022
Y1 - 2022
N2 - In this study, the Hydrologic Evaluation of Landfill Performance (HELP3.8D) model was developed to evaluate the spatiotemporal distribution of potential groundwater recharge (GWR) in Tasuj aquifer, northwestern Iran. High-resolution future climatic data from second-generation Canadian Earth System Model (CanESM2) general circulation models (GCMs) was produced under different scenarios of Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP2.6, RCP4.5, and RCP8.5). The analysis of climate parameters demonstrated that under RCP2.6, climatic variation will be substantially similar to that of the observed period (1961–2005), while moderate and severe droughts are anticipated under scenarios RCP4.5 and RCP8.5, respectively, over 2017–2030. The projection results showed that GWR will be altered by climate change, on average, from 31 mm/year at baseline to 32 (+3%), 28.5 (−8%) and 11.5 (−63%) mm/year under the RCP2.6, RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios, respectively. This approach can be easily replicated by other researchers and could be beneficial for monitoring water security and managing groundwater resources in other catchment areas.
AB - In this study, the Hydrologic Evaluation of Landfill Performance (HELP3.8D) model was developed to evaluate the spatiotemporal distribution of potential groundwater recharge (GWR) in Tasuj aquifer, northwestern Iran. High-resolution future climatic data from second-generation Canadian Earth System Model (CanESM2) general circulation models (GCMs) was produced under different scenarios of Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP2.6, RCP4.5, and RCP8.5). The analysis of climate parameters demonstrated that under RCP2.6, climatic variation will be substantially similar to that of the observed period (1961–2005), while moderate and severe droughts are anticipated under scenarios RCP4.5 and RCP8.5, respectively, over 2017–2030. The projection results showed that GWR will be altered by climate change, on average, from 31 mm/year at baseline to 32 (+3%), 28.5 (−8%) and 11.5 (−63%) mm/year under the RCP2.6, RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios, respectively. This approach can be easily replicated by other researchers and could be beneficial for monitoring water security and managing groundwater resources in other catchment areas.
KW - climate change
KW - GIS
KW - groundwater recharge
KW - HELP model
KW - Iran
KW - Tasuj Plain aquifer
UR - http://www.scopus.com/inward/record.url?scp=85130611902&partnerID=8YFLogxK
U2 - 10.1080/02626667.2022.2050732
DO - 10.1080/02626667.2022.2050732
M3 - Article
AN - SCOPUS:85130611902
SN - 0262-6667
VL - 67
SP - 979
EP - 995
JO - Hydrological Sciences Journal
JF - Hydrological Sciences Journal
IS - 6
ER -