Nitrate leaching losses from two Baltic Sea catchments under scenarios of changes in land use, land management and climate

Jørgen E. Olesen, Christen D. Børgesen, Fatemeh Hashemi, Mohamed Jabloun, Dominika Bar-Michalczyk, Przemyslaw Wachniew, Anna J. Zurek, Alena Bartosova, Thomas Bosshard, Anne L. Hansen, Jens C. Refsgaard

Publikation: Bidrag til tidsskriftArtikelForskningpeer review

19 Citationer (Scopus)

Abstrakt

Pollution with excess nutrients deteriorate the water quality of the Baltic Sea. The effect of combined land use and climate scenarios on nitrate leaching and nitrogen (N) loads to surface waters from two Baltic Sea catchments (Norsminde in Denmark and Kocinka in Poland) was explored using different models; the NLES and Daisy models for nitrate leaching, and MIKE SHE or MODFLOW/MT3DMS for N transport. Three Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSP1, SSP2 and SSP5) defined change in land use and agricultural activities. The climate change scenarios covered 2041–2060 compared with 1991–2010 under RCP8.5, applying four different climate models. Increases in predicted N-load from climate change vary from 20 to 60% depending on climate model. SSPs moderate these N-load changes with small changes for SSP1 to large increases for SSP5, with greater increases for Norsminde than Kocinka due to land use differences. This stresses needs for new measures and governing schemes to meet sustainability targets.

OriginalsprogEngelsk
Sider (fra-til)1252-1263
Antal sider12
TidsskriftAmbio
Vol/bind48
Udgave nummer11
DOI
StatusUdgivet - 1 nov. 2019

Programområde

  • Programområde 2: Vandressourcer

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