Model peer reviews and modeller-manager dialogues as an avenue to improved model credibility

H.J. Henriksen, A.L. Højberg

Publikation: Bidrag til bog/rapport/konferenceproceedingsKonferenceartikel i proceedingspeer review

2 Citationer (Scopus)

Abstrakt

Rigorous validation tests against independent data and uncertainty assessment are of principal importance in modelling, but these tests mainly increase the reliability of the model, not necessarily the credibility perceived by water managers and stakeholders. Credibility, as opposed to reliability, is much more connected to, and a result of, the manager-modeller dialogue with its speech and interaction process face-toface at model review sessions with peer reviews. However, the manager-modeller dialogue is also influenced by how water managers and different stakeholders cohere or differ in their framing of the environmental dispute which the modelling project is part of. Thus multiple frames can here influence how credibility and uncertainty issues are perceived by the water managers and stakeholders. We suggest that simply focusing on eliminating uncertainty and testing reliability is not enough. Instead, we recommend a broader focus in the modelling process in order to explicitly take notion of and evaluate the perceived credibility. The modellermanager dialogues must care more about how issues of incomplete knowledge, unpredictability, and multiple knowledge frames are explored and perceived by stakeholders. Experiences from Denmark with reference to the national water resource model (DK-model) and regional model projects are presented and discussed, including tools for facilitating dialogue drawing on social-science and natural-science toolboxes.

OriginalsprogEngelsk
TitelCalibration and Reliability in Groundwater Modelling: Credibility of Modelling
UndertitelProceedings of ModelCARE 2007 Conference, held in Denmark, September 2007
RedaktørerJ.C. Refsgaard, K. Kovar, E. Haarder, E. Nygaard
ForlagInternational Association of Hydrological Sciences
Sider101-107
Antal sider7
ISBN (Trykt)978-1901502497
StatusUdgivet - 2008
BegivenhedModelCARE 2007 - Copenhagen
Varighed: 9 sep. 200713 sep. 2017

Publikationsserier

NavnIAHS Publication
Vol/bind320
ISSN (Trykt)0144-7815

Konference

KonferenceModelCARE 2007
ByCopenhagen
Periode9/09/0713/09/17

Programområde

  • Programområde 2: Vandressourcer

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