Greenland ice sheet climate disequilibrium and committed sea-level rise

Jason E. Box, Alun Hubbard, David B. Bahr, William T. Colgan, Xavier Fettweis, Kenneth D. Mankoff, Adrien Wehrlé, Brice Noël, Michiel R. van den Broeke, Bert Wouters, Anders A. Bjørk, Robert S. Fausto

Publikation: Bidrag til tidsskriftArtikelForskningpeer review

1 Citationer (Scopus)

Abstrakt

Ice loss from the Greenland ice sheet is one of the largest sources of contemporary sea-level rise (SLR). While process-based models place timescales on Greenland’s deglaciation, their confidence is obscured by model shortcomings including imprecise atmospheric and oceanic couplings. Here, we present a complementary approach resolving ice sheet disequilibrium with climate constrained by satellite-derived bare-ice extent, tidewater sector ice flow discharge and surface mass balance data. We find that Greenland ice imbalance with the recent (2000–2019) climate commits at least 274 ± 68 mm SLR from 59 ± 15 × 103 km2 ice retreat, equivalent to 3.3 ± 0.9% volume loss, regardless of twenty-first-century climate pathways. This is a result of increasing mass turnover from precipitation, ice flow discharge and meltwater run-off. The high-melt year of 2012 applied in perpetuity yields an ice loss commitment of 782 ± 135 mm SLR, serving as an ominous prognosis for Greenland’s trajectory through a twenty-first century of warming.

OriginalsprogEngelsk
Sider (fra-til)808-813
Antal sider6
TidsskriftNature Climate Change
Vol/bind12
Udgave nummer9
DOI
StatusUdgivet - sep. 2022

Programområde

  • Programområde 5: Natur og klima

Fingeraftryk

Dyk ned i forskningsemnerne om 'Greenland ice sheet climate disequilibrium and committed sea-level rise'. Sammen danner de et unikt fingeraftryk.

Citationsformater