TY - JOUR
T1 - Climate model uncertainty versus conceptual geological uncertainty in hydrological modeling
AU - Sonnenborg, T.O.
AU - Seifert, D.
AU - Refsgaard, J.C.
N1 - Publisher Copyright:
© Author(s) 2015.
PY - 2015/9/16
Y1 - 2015/9/16
N2 - Projections of climate change impact are associated with a cascade of uncertainties including in CO
2 emission scenarios, climate models, downscaling and impact models. The relative importance of the individual uncertainty sources is expected to depend on several factors including the quantity that is projected. In the present study the impacts of climate model uncertainty and geological model uncertainty on hydraulic head, stream flow, travel time and capture zones are evaluated. Six versions of a physically based and distributed hydrological model, each containing a unique interpretation of the geological structure of the model area, are forced by 11 climate model projections. Each projection of future climate is a result of a GCM-RCM model combination (from the ENSEMBLES project) forced by the same CO
2 scenario (A1B). The changes from the reference period (1991-2010) to the future period (2081-2100) in projected hydrological variables are evaluated and the effects of geological model and climate model uncertainties are quantified. The results show that uncertainty propagation is context-dependent. While the geological conceptualization is the dominating uncertainty source for projection of travel time and capture zones, the uncertainty due to the climate models is more important for groundwater hydraulic heads and stream flow.
AB - Projections of climate change impact are associated with a cascade of uncertainties including in CO
2 emission scenarios, climate models, downscaling and impact models. The relative importance of the individual uncertainty sources is expected to depend on several factors including the quantity that is projected. In the present study the impacts of climate model uncertainty and geological model uncertainty on hydraulic head, stream flow, travel time and capture zones are evaluated. Six versions of a physically based and distributed hydrological model, each containing a unique interpretation of the geological structure of the model area, are forced by 11 climate model projections. Each projection of future climate is a result of a GCM-RCM model combination (from the ENSEMBLES project) forced by the same CO
2 scenario (A1B). The changes from the reference period (1991-2010) to the future period (2081-2100) in projected hydrological variables are evaluated and the effects of geological model and climate model uncertainties are quantified. The results show that uncertainty propagation is context-dependent. While the geological conceptualization is the dominating uncertainty source for projection of travel time and capture zones, the uncertainty due to the climate models is more important for groundwater hydraulic heads and stream flow.
KW - DK-model
UR - http://www.scopus.com/inward/record.url?scp=84941711517&partnerID=8YFLogxK
U2 - 10.5194/hess-19-3891-2015
DO - 10.5194/hess-19-3891-2015
M3 - Article
SN - 1027-5606
VL - 19
SP - 3891
EP - 3901
JO - Hydrology and Earth System Sciences
JF - Hydrology and Earth System Sciences
IS - 9
ER -