Choosing between Gaussian and MPS simulation: the role of data information content—a case study using uncertain interpretation data points

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2 Citationer (Scopus)

Abstrakt

Integration of geophysical data with information such as from boreholes and expert domain knowledge is often performed as cognitive or explicit geological modeling when generating deterministic geological models of the subsurface. However, such cognitive geological models lack the ability to express the uncertainty of layer boundaries. To remedy the shortcomings of this strategy we propose a novel stochastic methodology combining the efforts of probabilistic data integration and cognitive modeling. We treat geological interpretation points from the cognitive model as uncertain “soft” data. These data are then combined with analogous geology in a probabilistic model. We test two ways of combining and sampling from such a probabilistic model. Firstly, a high-entropy setup based on Gaussian distributions simulation. Secondly, lower entropy (and conceivable more realistic) geological solutions are obtained from multiple-point geostatistics (MPS). We apply both ways of solving the problem at a study site near Horsens, Denmark, where airborne transient electromagnetic measurements, seismic data, and borehole information are available and interpreted in cognitive modeling. We explain the complete framework for integrating the uncertain interpretations in geostatistical simulation. Results show that both the Gaussian simulation and multiple-point geostatistical approach allows satisfactory simulations of uncertain geological interpretations and are consistent with prior geological knowledge. Our results suggest that the number of uncertain data points and their information content play a pivotal role in selecting the most appropriate simulation method for the given framework. MPS simulations allow connectivity in scenarios with few data points due to the low entropy of the model. When the number of soft data increases, Gaussian simulation is less prone to produce simulation artifacts, faster to apply, and could be considered preferential to using MPS simulation.

OriginalsprogEngelsk
Sider (fra-til)1563-1583
Antal sider21
TidsskriftStochastic Environmental Research and Risk Assessment
Vol/bind35
Udgave nummer8
DOI
StatusUdgivet - aug. 2021

Programområde

  • Programområde 2: Vandressourcer

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