Chapter Four Complexity and Uncertainty: Rethinking the Modelling Activity

M. Brugnach, C. Pahl-Wostl, K. E. Lindenschmidt, J. A.E.B. Janssen, T. Filatova, A. Mouton, G. Holtz, P. van der Keur, N. Gaber

Publikation: Bidrag til bog/rapport/konferenceproceedingsBogkapitelForskningpeer review

35 Citationer (Scopus)

Abstrakt

The complexity and uncertainty inherent in environmental models must be considered and managed in an appropriate manner. This chapter presents a conceptual approach to deal with uncertainty, which considers the context of the purpose for which the model is developed. The four major modelling purposes identified - prediction, exploratory analysis, communication and learning - each focus on different modelling characteristics and roles of uncertainty. The notion of uncertainty is broadened, from being an attribute associated with the quality of information to also comprise modellers' beliefs and experiences. The chapter proposes ways in which uncertainty should be handled for each of the four modelling purposes and presents examples that illustrate the concepts. Various sources of uncertainty are considered relevant when modelling complex systems, and each source manifests differently in the data, structure or frame of the model.

OriginalsprogEngelsk
TitelEnvironmental Modelling, Software and Decision Support
RedaktørerA.J. Jakeman, A.A. Voinov, A.E. Rizzoli, S.H. Chen
Sider49-68
Antal sider20
DOI
StatusUdgivet - 2008

Publikationsserier

NavnDevelopments in Integrated Environmental Assessment
Vol/bind3
ISSN (Trykt)1574-101X

Programområde

  • Programområde 2: Vandressourcer

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