TY - JOUR
T1 - A framework for testing the ability of models to project climate change and its impacts
AU - Refsgaard, J.C.
AU - Madsen, H.
AU - Andréassian, V.
AU - Arnbjerg-Nielsen, K.
AU - Davidson, T.A.
AU - Drews, M.
AU - Hamilton, D.P.
AU - Jeppesen, E.
AU - Kjellström, E.
AU - Olesen, J.E.
AU - Sonnenborg, T.O.
AU - Trolle, D.
AU - Willems, P.
AU - Christensen, J.H.
N1 - Funding Information:
Acknowledgments The present study was funded by a grant from the Danish Council for Strategic Research for the project Centre for Regional Change in the Earth System (CRES—www.cres-centre.dk) under contract no: DSF-EnMi 09-066868.
PY - 2014/1
Y1 - 2014/1
N2 - Models used for climate change impact projections are typically not tested for simulation beyond current climate conditions. Since we have no data truly reflecting future conditions, a key challenge in this respect is to rigorously test models using proxies of future conditions. This paper presents a validation framework and guiding principles applicable across earth science disciplines for testing the capability of models to project future climate change and its impacts. Model test schemes comprising split-sample tests, differential split-sample tests and proxy site tests are discussed in relation to their application for projections by use of single models, ensemble modelling and space-time-substitution and in relation to use of different data from historical time series, paleo data and controlled experiments. We recommend that differential-split sample tests should be performed with best available proxy data in order to build further confidence in model projections.
AB - Models used for climate change impact projections are typically not tested for simulation beyond current climate conditions. Since we have no data truly reflecting future conditions, a key challenge in this respect is to rigorously test models using proxies of future conditions. This paper presents a validation framework and guiding principles applicable across earth science disciplines for testing the capability of models to project future climate change and its impacts. Model test schemes comprising split-sample tests, differential split-sample tests and proxy site tests are discussed in relation to their application for projections by use of single models, ensemble modelling and space-time-substitution and in relation to use of different data from historical time series, paleo data and controlled experiments. We recommend that differential-split sample tests should be performed with best available proxy data in order to build further confidence in model projections.
UR - http://www.scopus.com/inward/record.url?scp=84890554118&partnerID=8YFLogxK
U2 - 10.1007/s10584-013-0990-2
DO - 10.1007/s10584-013-0990-2
M3 - Article
SN - 0165-0009
VL - 122
SP - 271
EP - 282
JO - Climatic Change
JF - Climatic Change
IS - 1-2
ER -
